Mental models & strategy frameworks.
Curated essays on decision architecture, cognitive biases, probability, and execution velocity.
The 70% Decision Rule: How High-Velocity Teams Decide Under Uncertainty
Waiting for 90% certainty makes you dangerously slow. Acting on 40% makes you reckless. Here is how to navigate the golden 70% window.
Inversion Thinking: Why Avoiding Failure Outperforms Chasing Brilliance
Charlie Munger famously advised: "Invert, always invert." Discover how mapping exact failure modes clarifies the optimal path forward.
Escaping the Sunk Cost Trap: Killing Features with Conviction
The hardest part of product leadership is not choosing what to build, but having the courage to abandon what you already built.
First-Principles Reasoning: Breaking Problems Down to Fundamental Truths
Analogy-based thinking leads to incremental copies. First principles unlock breakthroughs by questioning inherited assumptions.
Scenario Planning: How to Prepare for Multiple Divergent Futures
Forecasting a single future creates vulnerability. Scenario planning builds resilience across varying market conditions.
Asymmetric Bets: Engineering Uncapped Upside with Bounded Downside
The hallmark of world-class operators is seeking opportunities where the cost of being wrong is small, but the reward of being right is transformative.